SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Nacional | 15 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 6 | 27 |
| 4 | Boston River | 15 | 4 | 27 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Plaza Colonia | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Montevideo City Torque | 15 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 15 | -16 | 12 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 44.09%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 29.63% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.94%) and 0-2 (7.96%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
| 29.63% | 26.28% | 44.09% |
| Both teams to score 51.36% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.02% | 52.98% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.42% | 74.58% |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.49% | 32.51% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.96% | 69.04% |
| Montevideo City Torque Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.1% | 23.9% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.89% | 58.11% |
| Score Analysis |
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
| 1-0 @ 8.73% 2-1 @ 7.02% 2-0 @ 4.91% 3-1 @ 2.63% 3-2 @ 1.88% 3-0 @ 1.84% Other @ 2.62% Total : 29.63% | 1-1 @ 12.49% 0-0 @ 7.77% 2-2 @ 5.02% Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.28% | 0-1 @ 11.12% 1-2 @ 8.94% 0-2 @ 7.96% 1-3 @ 4.27% 0-3 @ 3.8% 2-3 @ 2.4% 1-4 @ 1.53% 0-4 @ 1.36% Other @ 2.72% Total : 44.09% |
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