Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plaza Colonia win with a probability of 36.75%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 35.14% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.81%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (11.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
