Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 50.68%. A win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 25.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.
