Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 47.81%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 26.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
