SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haverfordwest County win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 32.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haverfordwest County win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (6.86%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Haverfordwest County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Haverfordwest County |
32.53% ( -1.18) | 24.92% ( 0.01) | 42.56% ( 1.17) |
| Both teams to score 57.15% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.94% ( -0.4) | 46.07% ( 0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.63% ( -0.38) | 68.37% ( 0.38) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.94% ( -0.92) | 27.06% ( 0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.57% ( -1.21) | 62.43% ( 1.21) |
| Haverfordwest County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.35% ( 0.38) | 21.65% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.22% ( 0.58) | 54.79% ( -0.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Haverfordwest County |
| 1-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 7.66% ( -0.18)2-0 @ 5.01% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 3.34% ( -0.17)3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 2.18% ( -0.14)4-1 @ 1.09% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.04% Total : 32.53% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.86% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 5.86% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.91% | 0-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.25) 1-2 @ 8.96% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 6.86% ( 0.27)1-3 @ 4.57% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 3.5% ( 0.18)2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.75% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 1.34% ( 0.08)2-4 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.48% Total : 42.56% |
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