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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 42.75%. A win for Haverfordwest County had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Haverfordwest County win was 1-0 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
31.92% ( 0.05) | 25.33% ( 0.01) | 42.75% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 55.51% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.91% ( -0.04) | 48.09% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.75% ( -0.03) | 70.25% ( 0.03) |
| Haverfordwest County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.56% ( 0.02) | 28.44% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.8% ( 0.02) | 64.2% ( -0.03) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.57% ( -0.05) | 22.43% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.05% ( -0.07) | 55.95% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 1-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.54% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.16% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.36% 3-0 @ 2.11% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 2.69% Total : 31.92% | 1-1 @ 11.98% 0-0 @ 6.38% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.63% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.32% | 0-1 @ 9.53% ( -0) 1-2 @ 8.96% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.13% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.47% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.55% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.67% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 2.26% Total : 42.75% |
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