SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 48.66%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 24.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.78%) and 2-1 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for a Botafogo win it was 0-1 (8.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Botafogo |
48.66% ( 0.41) | 27.1% ( -0.28) | 24.24% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 45.15% ( 0.61) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.93% ( 0.85) | 59.07% ( -0.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.48% ( 0.65) | 79.52% ( -0.64) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.61% ( 0.58) | 24.39% ( -0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.2% ( 0.8) | 58.81% ( -0.79) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.72% ( 0.36) | 40.28% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.09% ( 0.32) | 76.91% ( -0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Botafogo |
| 1-0 @ 13.86% ( -0.21) 2-0 @ 9.78% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.89% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 4.6% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 4.18% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.34% Total : 48.66% | 1-1 @ 12.6% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 9.83% ( -0.32)2-2 @ 4.04% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.62% Total : 27.09% | 0-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.06% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.23% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.33% Total : 24.24% |
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