Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 50.72%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 23.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (8.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
