SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Godoy Cruz | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 17 | San Lorenzo | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 18 | Lanus | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Colon | 13 | 0 | 16 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 44.78%. A win for Union had a probability of 28.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Union win was 0-1 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Union |
44.78% ( 0.56) | 27.12% ( -0.2) | 28.1% ( -0.36) |
| Both teams to score 48.01% ( 0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.13% ( 0.59) | 56.87% ( -0.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.21% ( 0.47) | 77.79% ( -0.47) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.71% ( 0.55) | 25.28% ( -0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.95% ( 0.75) | 60.05% ( -0.75) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.26% ( 0.03) | 35.74% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.49% ( 0.03) | 72.51% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Union |
| 1-0 @ 12.42% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.79% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 8.54% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 4.03% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 3.92% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.28% Total : 44.78% | 1-1 @ 12.78% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 9.04% ( -0.21)2-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.12% | 0-1 @ 9.3% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 6.58% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.78% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.99% Total : 28.1% |
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