The hosts come into this match in better form, and we expect them to secure a narrow victory to protect in the second leg.
Estudiantes have been in great form throughout the Copa Libertadores this season so will be no pushovers, especially with a more defensive system likely to be on the cards.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 56.65%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Estudiantes had a probability of 19.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%), while for a Estudiantes win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
-0.09) 
0.05) 
