Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 44.69%. A win for Coritiba had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.39%). The likeliest Coritiba win was 0-1 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
