SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 32.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
42.63% ( -0.15) | 24.9% ( -0.02) | 32.48% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 57.2% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.01% ( 0.15) | 45.99% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.71% ( 0.14) | 68.3% ( -0.13) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.41% ( -0) | 21.59% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.32% ( -0.01) | 54.69% ( 0.01) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.95% ( 0.18) | 27.05% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.58% ( 0.23) | 62.42% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelsea | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.95% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 6.86% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 4.58% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.51% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.76% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.15% ( 0)Other @ 2.5% Total : 42.63% | 1-1 @ 11.7% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.87% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 5.84% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.89% | 1-2 @ 7.65% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 7.64% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.99% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.34% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.56% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.18% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.05% Total : 32.48% |
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