SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 66.52%. A draw had a probability of 17.6% and a win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 15.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.19%) and 1-3 (7.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.57%), while for a Werder Bremen win it was 2-1 (4.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Werder Bremen | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
15.83% ( 0.38) | 17.64% ( 0.28) | 66.52% ( -0.66) |
| Both teams to score 62.48% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.16% ( -0.63) | 29.84% ( 0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49% ( -0.76) | 51% ( 0.77) |
| Werder Bremen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.19% ( 0.03) | 31.8% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.76% ( 0.03) | 68.24% ( -0.03) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.62% ( -0.3) | 8.38% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.84% ( -0.76) | 29.16% ( 0.76) |
| Score Analysis |
| Werder Bremen | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 4.34% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 3.05% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 2.05% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.99% Total : 15.83% | 1-1 @ 7.57% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 2.67% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.34% Total : 17.64% | 1-2 @ 9.38% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 8.19% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 7.76% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 6.77% ( -0.06)0-1 @ 6.61% ( 0.14)1-4 @ 4.81% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 4.44% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 4.2% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 2.75% ( -0.06)1-5 @ 2.38% ( -0.09)0-5 @ 2.08% ( -0.08)2-5 @ 1.37% ( -0.05)3-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.02)1-6 @ 0.99% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.75% Total : 66.52% |
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