SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 68.1%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 13.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.73%) and 1-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.45%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (3.94%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Freiburg |
68.1% ( 0.02) | 18.16% ( -0) | 13.74% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 54.62% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.78% ( -0.04) | 37.21% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.58% ( -0.04) | 59.42% ( 0.04) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.01% ( -0.01) | 9.99% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67% ( -0.01) | 32.99% ( 0.01) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.68% ( -0.05) | 39.31% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.98% ( -0.05) | 76.01% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Freiburg |
| 2-0 @ 10.41% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.73% 1-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 8% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.47% ( -0)4-0 @ 4.61% ( 0)4-1 @ 4.3% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.12% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.01% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.98% ( -0)5-2 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 4% Total : 68.09% | 1-1 @ 8.45% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.93% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.16% | 1-2 @ 3.94% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.67% ( 0)0-2 @ 1.71% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.41% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.23% ( -0)Other @ 1.78% Total : 13.74% |
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