SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 36.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.46%) and 2-0 (5.78%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Chelsea |
39.33% ( -1.63) | 24.14% ( 0.21) | 36.52% ( 1.43) |
| Both teams to score 60.88% ( -0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.39% ( -0.8) | 41.61% ( 0.8) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.99% ( -0.81) | 64.01% ( 0.81) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.73% ( -1.11) | 21.27% ( 1.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.81% ( -1.75) | 54.18% ( 1.75) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.32% ( 0.4) | 22.67% ( -0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.67% ( 0.58) | 56.32% ( -0.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-1 @ 8.57% ( -0.17) 1-0 @ 7.46% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.78% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 4.43% ( -0.25)3-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 2.98% ( -0.2)4-1 @ 1.71% ( -0.16)4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.69% Total : 39.33% | 1-1 @ 11.07% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 4.82% ( 0.17)3-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.13% | 1-2 @ 8.22% ( 0.21) 0-1 @ 7.16% ( 0.34)0-2 @ 5.31% ( 0.31)1-3 @ 4.07% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 3.15% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.18)1-4 @ 1.51% ( 0.07)2-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.35% Total : 36.52% |
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