With both teams picking up some strong results so far this season, we expect to see a high-quality match play out at the Rhein-Neckar-Arena on Friday evening, with the respective managers seemingly finding a better balance between attack and defence in recent weeks.
Although BVB will be acutely aware that any more dropped points could see them fall too far behind Bayern in the title race even at this early stage of the season, we can envisage them having to share for a share of the spoils in Baden-Wurttemberg, which would at least keep their unbeaten record in tact.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 53.59%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.58%) and 0-2 (5.38%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 2-1 (5.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
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