Baumgart has been loath to label Koln's current predicament a "crisis", and with good reason too, as the Billy Goats have only been bested by Borussia Dortmund in their last six away games and can restore a small slice of pride against a leaky Werder Bremen crop.
The hosts are very rarely kept at arm's length in front of their own fans, though, and we can see another low-scoring draw being played out between the two sides, as was the case four months ago.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 53.29%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 24.26% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.55%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 2-1 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
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