While Mainz have struggled on home soil this season, Augsburg have found life difficult on the road of late, meaning that Saturday's clash is likely to be a relatively cagey affair.
Given that Mainz and Augsburg find themselves just a handful of points outside the drop zone, both sides will be happy to settle for a draw, preventing a relegation rival from winning in the process.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 49.96%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 25.95% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 0-1 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
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