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Serie A | Gameweek 21
Feb 5, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
ML

Inter Milan
1 - 0
AC Milan

Martinez (34')
Mkhitaryan (67'), Acerbi (68')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Kalulu (32'), Gabbia (49'), Leao (62'), Giroud (84'), Rebic (88')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Inter Milan 1-0 Atalanta
Tuesday, January 31 at 8pm in Coppa Italia
Last Game: AC Milan 2-5 Sassuolo
Sunday, January 29 at 11.30am in Serie A

We said: Inter Milan 2-1 AC Milan

Such has been Milan's collapse over recent weeks, it is hard to see them rallying for the Derby della Madonnina and preventing an Inter victory. While not quite the finished article, the Nerazzurri are more likely to win the midfield battle and boast plenty of possible goalscorers. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 50.53%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 25.68% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (6.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Inter Milan in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Inter Milan.

Result
Inter MilanDrawAC Milan
50.53% (-0.281 -0.28) 23.78% (0.076000000000001 0.08) 25.68% (0.202 0.2)
Both teams to score 56.41% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.02% (-0.168 -0.17)44.98% (0.166 0.17)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.67% (-0.159 -0.16)67.33% (0.15899999999999 0.16)
Inter Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.14% (-0.16799999999999 -0.17)17.85% (0.167 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.38% (-0.293 -0.29)48.62% (0.292 0.29)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.67% (0.072999999999993 0.07)31.32% (-0.073 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.31% (0.086000000000006 0.09)67.68% (-0.087000000000003 -0.09)
Score Analysis
    Inter Milan 50.53%
    AC Milan 25.68%
    Draw 23.78%
Inter MilanDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 9.64% (0.016 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.64% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
2-0 @ 8.3% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-1 @ 5.53% (-0.04 -0.04)
3-0 @ 4.77% (-0.045 -0.04)
3-2 @ 3.21% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-1 @ 2.38% (-0.031 -0.03)
4-0 @ 2.05% (-0.031 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.38% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 50.53%
1-1 @ 11.18% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 5.59% (0.04 0.04)
2-2 @ 5.59% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 1.24% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 23.78%
0-1 @ 6.49% (0.059 0.06)
1-2 @ 6.49% (0.037 0.04)
0-2 @ 3.77% (0.042 0.04)
1-3 @ 2.51% (0.02 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.16% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.46% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 25.68%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Inter Milan 1-0 Atalanta
Tuesday, January 31 at 8pm in Coppa Italia
Last Game: Cremonese 1-2 Inter Milan
Saturday, January 28 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Inter Milan 0-1 Empoli
Monday, January 23 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 0-3 Inter Milan
Wednesday, January 18 at 7pm in Supercoppa Italiana
Last Game: Inter Milan 1-0 Hellas Verona
Saturday, January 14 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Inter Milan 2-1 Parma
Tuesday, January 10 at 8pm in Coppa Italia
Last Game: AC Milan 2-5 Sassuolo
Sunday, January 29 at 11.30am in Serie A
Last Game: Lazio 4-0 AC Milan
Tuesday, January 24 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 0-3 Inter Milan
Wednesday, January 18 at 7pm in Supercoppa Italiana
Last Game: Lecce 2-2 AC Milan
Saturday, January 14 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 0-1 Torino
Wednesday, January 11 at 8pm in Coppa Italia
Last Game: AC Milan 2-2 Roma
Sunday, January 8 at 7.45pm in Serie A


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