Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.39%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (11.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.

Result
Birmingham City	Draw	Derby County
30.4%	29.21%	40.39%

Both teams to score 43.42%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.82%

63.18%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.4%

82.6%

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.63%

37.36%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.85%

74.15%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.32%

30.67%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.07%

66.92%

Score Analysis

Birmingham City 30.4%

Derby County 40.38%

Draw 29.21%

Birmingham City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 11.28% 2-1 @ 6.56% 2-0 @ 5.55% 3-1 @ 2.15% 3-0 @ 1.82% 3-2 @ 1.27% Other @ 1.75% Total : 30.4%	1-1 @ 13.33% 0-0 @ 11.46% 2-2 @ 3.88% Other @ 0.54% Total : 29.21%	0-1 @ 13.54% 0-2 @ 8% 1-2 @ 7.88% 0-3 @ 3.15% 1-3 @ 3.1% 2-3 @ 1.53% 0-4 @ 0.93% 1-4 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.33% Total : 40.38%