SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Racing Club | 14 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Estudiantes | 13 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 61.7%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Estudiantes had a probability of 16.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.88%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for a Estudiantes win it was 0-1 (5.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Estudiantes |
61.7% ( -0.12) | 22.21% ( -0.01) | 16.09% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 46.97% ( 0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.66% ( 0.23) | 50.34% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.72% ( 0.21) | 72.28% ( -0.2) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.18% ( 0.04) | 15.82% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.01% ( 0.07) | 44.99% ( -0.07) |
| Estudiantes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.79% ( 0.31) | 44.2% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.71% ( 0.25) | 80.29% ( -0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Estudiantes |
| 1-0 @ 12.89% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 11.88% ( -0.08)2-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 7.31% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 5.97% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.75% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.44% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.24% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.01% Total : 61.69% | 1-1 @ 10.52% 0-0 @ 6.99% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 3.96% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.73% Total : 22.2% | 0-1 @ 5.71% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.3% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.51% Total : 16.09% |
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