There is very little to separate the teams right now and either of them could end up victorious in this one. However, we just about fancy Boca Junior to see off the threat of Estudiantes, albeit by only a narrow margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 61.7%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Estudiantes had a probability of 16.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.88%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for a Estudiantes win it was 0-1 (5.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.

Result
Boca Juniors	Draw	Estudiantes
61.7% ( -0.12)	22.21% ( -0.01)	16.09% ( 0.13)

Both teams to score 46.97% (

0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.66% (

0.23)

50.34% (

-0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.72% (

0.21)

72.28% (

-0.2)

Boca Juniors Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.18% (

0.04)

15.82% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.01% (

0.07)

44.99% (

-0.07)

Estudiantes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.79% (

0.31)

44.2% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.71% (

0.25)

80.29% (

-0.25)

Score Analysis

Boca Juniors 61.69%

Estudiantes 16.09%

Draw 22.2%

Boca Juniors	Draw	Estudiantes
1-0 @ 12.89% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 11.88% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 7.31% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.97% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.75% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.44% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.24% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.01% Total : 61.69%	1-1 @ 10.52% 0-0 @ 6.99% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 3.96% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.73% Total : 22.2%	0-1 @ 5.71% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.3% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.51% Total : 16.09%