Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olimpia win with a probability of 51.71%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 23.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olimpia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.71%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Olimpia in this match.
