Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 58.71%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Cerrito had a probability of 17.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.96%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Cerrito win it was 1-0 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.
