Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colon win with a probability of 47.08%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 24.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colon win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (8.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.87%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (9.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colon would win this match.
