SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Colon | 13 | 0 | 16 |
| 16 | Godoy Cruz | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boston River | 15 | 4 | 27 |
| 5 | Penarol | 15 | 4 | 26 |
| 6 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 24 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colon win with a probability of 47.08%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 24.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colon win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (8.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.87%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (9.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Colon | Draw | Penarol |
| 47.08% | 28.7% | 24.23% |
| Both teams to score 41.15% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.82% | 64.18% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.69% | 83.31% |
| Colon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.49% | 27.51% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.99% | 63.01% |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.76% | 43.24% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.51% | 79.49% |
| Score Analysis |
| Colon | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 15.35% 2-0 @ 9.91% 2-1 @ 8.31% 3-0 @ 4.26% 3-1 @ 3.57% 3-2 @ 1.5% 4-0 @ 1.38% 4-1 @ 1.15% Other @ 1.65% Total : 47.08% | 1-1 @ 12.87% 0-0 @ 11.89% 2-2 @ 3.48% Other @ 0.45% Total : 28.69% | 0-1 @ 9.97% 1-2 @ 5.4% 0-2 @ 4.18% 1-3 @ 1.51% 0-3 @ 1.17% 2-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.03% Total : 24.23% |
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