Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.75%. A win for Olimpia had a probability of 27.2% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Olimpia win was 0-1 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
