SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Estudiantes | 13 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 17 | San Lorenzo | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 18 | Lanus | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Arsenal Sarandi | 12 | 0 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 62.59%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Lanus had a probability of 17.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.91%) and 1-0 (8.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.86%), while for a Lanus win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for River Plate in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for River Plate.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Lanus |
62.59% ( 0.09) | 19.59% ( -0.01) | 17.81% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 59.43% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.34% ( -0.1) | 35.66% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.28% ( -0.11) | 57.72% ( 0.11) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.07% ( -0.01) | 10.93% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.88% ( -0.02) | 35.12% ( 0.02) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.72% ( -0.15) | 33.28% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.1% ( -0.16) | 69.9% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Lanus |
| 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.91% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 8.05% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 7.24% ( 0)3-0 @ 6.58% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 4.01% 3-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.77% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 3.82% Total : 62.59% | 1-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.25% Total : 19.59% | 1-2 @ 4.87% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.97% Total : 17.81% |
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