SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 53.28%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 24.79% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 2-1 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Jong Ajax | Draw | Willem II |
24.79% ( -2.95) | 21.92% ( -0.71) | 53.28% ( 3.65) |
| Both teams to score 61.96% ( -0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.78% ( 0.77) | 37.22% ( -0.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.57% ( 0.83) | 59.42% ( -0.83) |
| Jong Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.13% ( -1.71) | 27.87% ( 1.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.52% ( -2.25) | 63.48% ( 2.25) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.91% ( 1.5) | 14.09% ( -1.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.29% ( 2.86) | 41.7% ( -2.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jong Ajax | Draw | Willem II |
| 2-1 @ 6.28% ( -0.53) 1-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.45)2-0 @ 3.21% ( -0.46)3-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.37)3-2 @ 2.62% ( -0.21)3-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.27)Other @ 3.63% Total : 24.79% | 1-1 @ 9.83% ( -0.33) 2-2 @ 6.15% ( -0.18)0-0 @ 3.93% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.3% Total : 21.92% | 1-2 @ 9.63% ( 0.19) 0-1 @ 7.7% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 7.54% ( 0.5)1-3 @ 6.29% ( 0.44)0-3 @ 4.93% ( 0.56)2-3 @ 4.02% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 3.08% ( 0.36)0-4 @ 2.41% ( 0.39)2-4 @ 1.97% ( 0.15)1-5 @ 1.21% ( 0.2)0-5 @ 0.95% ( 0.19)Other @ 3.56% Total : 53.28% |
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