Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 43.99%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 32.18% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.86%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 1-2 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong AZ would win this match.
