Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 56.84%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 22.18% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.86%) and 1-0 (7.56%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (5.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
0.95) 
-0.32) 
