SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 52.92%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 23.67% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.76%) and 0-2 (8.84%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-0 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
| Result | ||
| VVV-Venlo | Draw | Willem II |
23.67% ( -0.78) | 23.41% ( -0.6) | 52.92% ( 1.37) |
| Both teams to score 55.47% ( 1.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.79% ( 1.83) | 45.21% ( -1.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.44% ( 1.73) | 67.55% ( -1.73) |
| VVV-Venlo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.87% ( 0.33) | 33.13% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.27% ( 0.36) | 69.73% ( -0.36) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.94% ( 1.19) | 17.06% ( -1.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.78% ( 2.07) | 47.22% ( -2.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| VVV-Venlo | Draw | Willem II |
| 1-0 @ 6.24% ( -0.44) 2-1 @ 6.1% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 3.45% ( -0.21)3-1 @ 2.25% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.38% Total : 23.67% | 1-1 @ 11.04% ( -0.33) 0-0 @ 5.65% ( -0.46)2-2 @ 5.39% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.41% | 0-1 @ 9.99% ( -0.39) 1-2 @ 9.76% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 8.84% ( 0)1-3 @ 5.76% ( 0.27)0-3 @ 5.21% ( 0.2)2-3 @ 3.18% ( 0.18)1-4 @ 2.55% ( 0.21)0-4 @ 2.3% ( 0.17)2-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.13)Other @ 3.92% Total : 52.92% |
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