SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 76.5%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for Jong FC Utrecht had a probability of 8.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.2%) and 1-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.99%), while for a Jong FC Utrecht win it was 0-1 (2.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | Jong FC Utrecht |
76.5% ( 0.07) | 14.8% ( -0.05) | 8.69% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 48.76% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.38% ( 0.17) | 35.61% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.33% ( 0.19) | 57.67% ( -0.19) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.31% ( 0.06) | 7.69% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.58% ( 0.14) | 27.42% ( -0.14) |
| Jong FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.82% ( 0.08) | 47.18% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.38% ( 0.06) | 82.62% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | Jong FC Utrecht |
| 2-0 @ 11.93% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 10.2% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 9.31% ( -0.05)2-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.67% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 6.55% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 4.92% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 3.36% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.88% Total : 76.49% | 1-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 3.37% ( 0)Other @ 0.82% Total : 14.8% | 0-1 @ 2.73% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 2.63% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 2.32% Total : 8.69% |
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