SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 40.09%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 35.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.64%) and 2-0 (5.95%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | Vitesse |
40.09% ( 1.23) | 24.2% ( -0.02) | 35.71% ( -1.21) |
| Both teams to score 60.56% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.03% ( 0) | 41.97% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.62% ( 0) | 64.37% ( -0.01) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.94% ( 0.6) | 21.06% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.13% ( 0.92) | 53.87% ( -0.92) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.72% ( -0.64) | 23.28% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.79% ( -0.94) | 57.21% ( 0.94) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | Vitesse |
| 2-1 @ 8.67% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 7.64% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.21)3-1 @ 4.5% ( 0.16)3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 3.09% ( 0.16)4-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 1.28% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.73% Total : 40.09% | 1-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.32% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.9% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.6% ( -0)Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.2% | 1-2 @ 8.11% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 7.15% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.2)1-3 @ 3.94% ( -0.16)2-3 @ 3.07% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.53% ( -0.15)1-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.09)2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.22% Total : 35.71% |
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