SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 46.17%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 30.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 2-1 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Ajax |
30.47% ( -0.33) | 23.35% ( -0.01) | 46.17% ( 0.34) |
| Both teams to score 61.68% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.31% ( -0.13) | 39.69% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.95% ( -0.13) | 62.04% ( 0.13) |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.77% ( -0.26) | 25.22% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.03% ( -0.36) | 59.96% ( 0.36) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.49% ( 0.08) | 17.51% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.98% ( 0.15) | 48.02% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 7.3% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 6.08% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.19% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.35% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.92% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.92% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.55% Total : 30.47% | 1-1 @ 10.6% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.35% | 1-2 @ 9.24% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 7.7% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 6.7% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 5.36% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 3.89% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 3.69% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.34% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.7% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.61% ( 0)Other @ 3.94% Total : 46.17% |
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