The two sides boast similar levels of quality, and, given the nature of a first-leg affair, we predict a tight contest with neither risking a heavy defeat but both posing the ability to punish their opponents.
We ultimately see a draw as the most likely outcome ahead of the second leg in France.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 44.21%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.72%) and 2-0 (6.48%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-2 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
