Atletico are flying at the moment and will have been further boosted by their win over Man United in the Champions League. Rayo, on the other hand, are struggling for form, and we are finding it very difficult to back anything other than a routine victory for the Spanish champions this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 45.77%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 28.21% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.3%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Atletico Madrid in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Atletico Madrid.

Result
Rayo Vallecano	Draw	Atletico Madrid
28.21%	26.01%	45.77%

Both teams to score 51.35%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.4%

52.6%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.75%

74.25%

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.63%

33.37%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30%

70%

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.07%

22.94%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.29%

56.71%

Score Analysis

Rayo Vallecano 28.21%

Atletico Madrid 45.77%

Draw 26.01%

Rayo Vallecano	Draw	Atletico Madrid
1-0 @ 8.4% 2-1 @ 6.79% 2-0 @ 4.61% 3-1 @ 2.48% 3-2 @ 1.83% 3-0 @ 1.69% Other @ 2.42% Total : 28.21%	1-1 @ 12.36% 0-0 @ 7.65% 2-2 @ 5% Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.01%	0-1 @ 11.27% 1-2 @ 9.11% 0-2 @ 8.3% 1-3 @ 4.47% 0-3 @ 4.07% 2-3 @ 2.45% 1-4 @ 1.65% 0-4 @ 1.5% 2-4 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.05% Total : 45.77%