Elche will not go the whole season without winning a match, but we are finding it very difficult to back the home side to pick up a positive result here. Villarreal need to put a victory on the board to stay in touch with the top four, and we are fully expecting the visitors to secure all three points in this contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 48.71%. A win for Elche had a probability of 26.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.39%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Elche win was 1-0 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
0.13) 
-0.29) 
