Sevilla's last league win over Real Madrid came in September 2018, losing eight of the last nine top-flight meetings between the two sides. It is very difficult to back anything other than an away success in this match, although we are expecting it to be close in terms of the scoreline.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 38.17%. A win for Sevilla had a probability of 37.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.41%) and 0-2 (5.61%). The likeliest Sevilla win was 2-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
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