SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 49.74%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 28.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.88%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Barcelona |
28.12% ( 0.93) | 22.14% ( 0.11) | 49.74% ( -1.04) |
| Both teams to score 64.49% ( 0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.7% ( 0.2) | 35.3% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.68% ( 0.22) | 57.33% ( -0.21) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.49% ( 0.72) | 24.52% ( -0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.02% ( 1) | 58.98% ( -1) |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.43% ( -0.27) | 14.57% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.37% ( -0.53) | 42.63% ( 0.53) |
| Score Analysis |
| Villarreal | Draw | Barcelona |
| 2-1 @ 6.8% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 3.53% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 3.19% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 3.07% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.67% Total : 28.12% | 1-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.55% ( 0.08)0-0 @ 3.57% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.97% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.37% Total : 22.14% | 1-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 6.88% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 6.63% ( -0.2)1-3 @ 5.98% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 4.26% ( -0.17)2-3 @ 4.21% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.88% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 2.05% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 2.03% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 1.11% ( -0.04)3-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.47% Total : 49.74% |
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