SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 61.6%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 19.15%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.81%) and 3-1 (7.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.29%), while for a Vitesse win it was 1-2 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Vitesse |
61.6% ( -0.04) | 19.24% ( -0) | 19.15% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 63.49% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.39% ( 0.07) | 31.61% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.89% ( 0.09) | 53.11% ( -0.09) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90% ( 0.01) | 9.99% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.99% ( 0.03) | 33% ( -0.02) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.54% ( 0.08) | 29.45% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.54% ( 0.1) | 65.46% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Vitesse |
| 2-1 @ 9.54% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.81% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 7.33% ( -0)1-0 @ 6.78% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.99% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.22% ( 0)4-0 @ 3.45% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.94% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.59% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.19% ( 0)4-3 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 3.65% Total : 61.6% | 1-1 @ 8.29% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.94% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.36% Total : 19.25% | 1-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.38% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.2% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.86% Total : 19.15% |
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