SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 52%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 24.44% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (8.63%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (6.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Braga in this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Braga |
24.44% ( 1.09) | 23.56% ( 0.66) | 52% ( -1.75) |
| Both teams to score 55.87% ( -0.95) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.9% ( -1.85) | 45.1% ( 1.85) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.56% ( -1.8) | 67.44% ( 1.8) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.59% ( -0.08) | 32.41% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.08% ( -0.09) | 68.92% ( 0.09) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.65% ( -1.3) | 17.35% ( 1.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.26% ( -2.33) | 47.73% ( 2.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 6.33% ( 0.48) 2-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.2)2-0 @ 3.57% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 2.35% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.54% Total : 24.44% | 1-1 @ 11.09% ( 0.38) 0-0 @ 5.62% ( 0.44)2-2 @ 5.48% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.55% | 0-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 9.72% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 8.63% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 5.68% ( -0.31)0-3 @ 5.04% ( -0.26)2-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.18)1-4 @ 2.49% ( -0.25)0-4 @ 2.21% ( -0.22)2-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.15)Other @ 3.81% Total : 52.01% |
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