SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Girona had a probability of 29.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Girona win was 0-1 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Girona |
46.37% ( -0.04) | 24.58% ( 0.01) | 29.05% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 56.5% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.88% ( -0.04) | 46.12% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.58% ( -0.04) | 68.42% ( 0.04) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.02% ( -0.03) | 19.98% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.85% ( -0.05) | 52.15% ( 0.06) |
| Girona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.6% ( -0) | 29.4% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 34.61% ( -0) | 65.38% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Girona |
| 1-0 @ 9.46% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.33% ( -0)2-0 @ 7.62% ( -0)3-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.09% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.02% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.65% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.23% ( -0)Other @ 2.91% Total : 46.37% | 1-1 @ 11.57% 0-0 @ 5.87% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.71% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.57% | 0-1 @ 7.19% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.09% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.4% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.89% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.8% ( 0)Other @ 3.35% Total : 29.05% |
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