America have already conceded at least two goals on 10 separate occasions this season, so faced with an Atletico attack led by veteran striker Hulk, they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet at Mineirao. That should lead to three wins from three for Galo in the derby this year. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 66.52%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 12.63%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.52%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.75%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (5.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.

Result
Atletico Mineiro	Draw	America Mineiro
66.52% ( -1.26)	20.84% ( 0.37)	12.63% ( 0.88)

Both teams to score 42.64% (

1.43)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.48% (

0.48)

51.52% (

-0.48)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.68% (

0.42)

73.32% (

-0.42)

Atletico Mineiro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.34% (

-0.24)

14.65% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.2% (

-0.46)

42.8% (

0.46)

America Mineiro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.96% (

1.81)

50.04% (

-1.82)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.31% (

1.22)

84.68% (

-1.23)

Score Analysis

Atletico Mineiro 66.52%

America Mineiro 12.63%

Draw 20.84%

Atletico Mineiro	Draw	America Mineiro
1-0 @ 14.08% ( -0.39) 2-0 @ 13.52% ( -0.5) 2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.15) 3-0 @ 8.66% ( -0.4) 3-1 @ 5.99% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 4.16% ( -0.23) 4-1 @ 2.88% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.08% ( 0.12) 5-0 @ 1.6% ( -0.1) 5-1 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.1% Total : 66.52%	1-1 @ 9.75% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 7.33% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.22) Other @ 0.52% Total : 20.84%	0-1 @ 5.08% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 3.38% ( 0.25) 0-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.15) Other @ 2.42% Total : 12.63%