SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 57.51%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 18.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Mineiro | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
57.51% ( 0.19) | 23.59% ( -0.07) | 18.9% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 48.17% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.45% ( 0.12) | 51.55% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.65% ( 0.11) | 73.35% ( -0.11) |
| Atletico Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.3% ( 0.11) | 17.7% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.64% ( 0.2) | 48.36% ( -0.2) |
| Vasco da Gama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.53% ( -0.06) | 41.47% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.03% ( -0.06) | 77.97% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Mineiro | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
| 1-0 @ 12.71% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 11% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.69% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.59% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.75% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.46% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.42% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.52% Total : 57.5% | 1-1 @ 11.18% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.34% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.26% ( -0)Other @ 0.8% Total : 23.58% | 0-1 @ 6.46% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 1.98% Total : 18.9% |
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