Atletico seem to be looking ahead to the Libertadores final, and even though we believe they have the superior team, Paraense may benefit from having a few extra days of rest and claim a point.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 47.37%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 25.89%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.17%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for an Atletico Mineiro win it was 0-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Athletico Paranaense in this match.
-0.27) 
0.31) 
