SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 42.33%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 33.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.99%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Austin FC | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
42.33% ( 0.39) | 24.19% ( 0.01) | 33.47% ( -0.41) |
| Both teams to score 60.04% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.58% ( -0.16) | 42.41% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.17% ( -0.16) | 64.82% ( 0.16) |
| Austin FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.77% ( 0.11) | 20.22% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.46% ( 0.17) | 52.54% ( -0.18) |
| Sporting Kansas City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.26% ( -0.31) | 24.73% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.71% ( -0.43) | 59.28% ( 0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Austin FC | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
| 2-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.99% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 6.39% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 4.76% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 3.32% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.9% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.36% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0)Other @ 2.95% Total : 42.33% | 1-1 @ 11.16% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.24% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.18% | 1-2 @ 7.8% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.63% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.72% Total : 33.48% |
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