SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 50.89%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 26.89% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.34%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
50.89% ( 1.97) | 22.22% ( -0.55) | 26.89% ( -1.42) |
| Both teams to score 63.08% ( 0.8) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.3% ( 1.57) | 36.69% ( -1.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.14% ( 1.69) | 58.86% ( -1.68) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.31% ( 1.25) | 14.69% ( -1.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.14% ( 2.35) | 42.86% ( -2.35) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.93% ( -0.15) | 26.06% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.89% ( -0.2) | 61.11% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 9.47% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 7.34% ( -0.24)2-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 6.06% ( 0.3)3-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.24)3-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.18)4-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.26)4-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.2)4-2 @ 1.95% ( 0.17)5-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.14)Other @ 4.28% Total : 50.89% | 1-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.37) 2-2 @ 6.37% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 3.83% ( -0.3)3-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.33% Total : 22.22% | 1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.28) 0-1 @ 5.15% ( -0.43)0-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.31)1-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.14)2-3 @ 2.85% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.14)1-4 @ 1% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.3% Total : 26.89% |
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