Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 43.77%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 29.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.01) 
