SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 50.84%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 21.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.93%) and 1-2 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (9.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
21.32% ( -0.22) | 27.84% ( -0.13) | 50.84% ( 0.34) |
| Both teams to score 40.41% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.4% ( 0.21) | 63.59% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.1% ( 0.15) | 82.89% ( -0.15) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.16% ( -0.11) | 45.83% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.41% ( -0.09) | 81.59% ( 0.09) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.6% ( 0.26) | 25.4% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.79% ( 0.35) | 60.2% ( -0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 9.08% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 4.86% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.66% Total : 21.32% | 1-1 @ 12.44% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 11.64% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 3.33% ( 0)Other @ 0.42% Total : 27.83% | 0-1 @ 15.95% 0-2 @ 10.93% ( 0.08)1-2 @ 8.53% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 5% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 3.9% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.71% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.34% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.97% Total : 50.83% |
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