SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 36.62%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 33.86% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.41%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Cerro win was 1-0 (12.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Danubio |
33.86% ( 0.18) | 29.52% ( -0.1) | 36.62% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 43.37% ( 0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.39% ( 0.35) | 63.61% ( -0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.09% ( 0.25) | 82.91% ( -0.25) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.93% ( 0.32) | 35.07% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.19% ( 0.33) | 71.81% ( -0.33) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.79% ( 0.14) | 33.21% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.18% ( 0.15) | 69.82% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 12.2% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.05% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.4% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.16% Total : 33.86% | 1-1 @ 13.45% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 11.64% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 3.89% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.54% Total : 29.51% | 0-1 @ 12.83% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 7.41% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 7.08% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.72% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.6% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.54% Total : 36.61% |
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