SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 41.88%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Chorley win was 1-0 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chorley | Draw | Hereford United |
32.25% ( -0.34) | 25.87% ( 0.02) | 41.88% ( 0.31) |
| Both teams to score 53.84% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.69% ( -0.19) | 50.3% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.74% ( -0.17) | 72.25% ( 0.17) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.68% ( -0.31) | 29.32% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.7% ( -0.39) | 65.29% ( 0.39) |
| Hereford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.18% ( 0.08) | 23.82% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.01% ( 0.11) | 57.99% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chorley | Draw | Hereford United |
| 1-0 @ 8.57% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.54% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 5.26% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 3.08% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.15% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.5% Total : 32.25% | 1-1 @ 12.29% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.87% | 0-1 @ 10.01% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 8.82% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 7.19% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 4.22% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.44% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 1.93% Total : 41.87% |
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